23 November 2007

Now we wait, pray, prepare for the worst

IT APPEARS we will have to wait for Typhoon 'Mina' a little bit longer.

The latest tracking maps available as I write this show that the typhoon has slowed down, and will pass closest to Bicol mainland by around 8 am tomorrow.

But the bad news, according to Typhoon2000.com, is: Mina will gain more strength, with gustiness up to 260 kph when it passes north of Naga. That is dangerously close to that of Reming.

What path it will eventually take is still up in the air: the contrasting forecasts between PAGASA and the international meteorological entities that Typhoon2000 depend on, in fact persist.

From the top map above, the state agency is projecting Mina's eyewall to go through Albay Gulf -- with Rapu-Rapu and Legazpi City directly on its path -- towards Mindoro. On the other hand, Mike Padua's 11am storm track maintains a path that will barely graze Bicol mainland in the general direction of Baler, Aurora. That's a differential of about 250 kms!

This prompted Porfirio Rubirosa, a regular passerby of this weblog, to quip: "Apparently, different meteorological stations/weather report outfits have their own versions of tracking a typhoon. What does it tell us? That weather forecasting/typhoon tracking isn't really an exact science, it's all tentative."

When all of these is over, it will be interesting to see which one called it more accurately.

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