04 July 2007

Redistricting Camarines Sur optimally

GUIDED by the constitutional requirements for a legislative district -- (1) a contiguous, compact, and adjacent territory, and (2) a population of at least two hundred fifty thousand -- the map to the right is my take on redistricting Camarines Sur which only has four at present.

Actually, based on the 2000 Census, Camarines Sur is already entitled to six legislative districts, on the strength of its 1,551,549 population. Unfortunately, differences in the municipal population breakdown, together with territorial requirement on contiguity, prevents the creation of a sixth district.

But with an annual projected population growth rate of 1.07%, which would put the 2007 provincial population between 1.7 and 1.9 million, optimal redistricting should be within reach when census results are made available by the first half of 2008.

Do you think my proposed configuration will fly? Your comments are welcome. The 2000 population data are available after the jump.

You are encouraged to suggest other possible configurations consistent with the above requirements, as well as other cultural and political realities that I may have missed.

But one unmissable political dimension: will our four incumbent congressmen agree to push this advocacy?

If you are interested in data manipulation, I saved the population data as a Google spreadsheet.

15 comments:

Filipinayzd said...

Wow! Kwestson lang, fiksd na ba yung bilang ng konggresyonal distrikt sa Pilipinas at hindi na pwedeng magdagdag? Hindi ko alam kung saan ko yun nabasa. Buti ipinowst mo yan. Matagal ko na rin gustong mag-post ng ganyan.

Yun akin, dapat yung 1st at 2nd district (pwede rin, yung 2nd district lang, hehehe) gawin nang bagong province. Ang pangalan, "Camarines".

Gumawa rin ako, pagbabago at pagkrieyt ng mga bagong rijon. Ipo-post ko asap.

Willy B. Prilles, Jr. said...

Irvin: If my reading of the '87 Constitution is correct, it's a maximum of 250 legislative districts. This excludes the partylists can represent up to 20% of the total.

Filipinayzd said...

Magiging praktikal eksklayv/inaksesibol distrikt ang Balatan ng "yellow district". Anles may road na nagkokonekt sa Bula at Balatan, pwede.


Red district = as-is (ikinokonekt ng national road at Maharlika)

Violet district = Naga City, Canaman, Camaligan, Magarao, Bombon at Calabanga (ikinokonekt ng Naga-Calabanga road)

Green district = Pasacao, Pamplona, San Fernando, Milaor, Gainza, Pili at Minalabac (ikinokonekt ng national road ang Pili ng Pili-Milaor road)

Orange district = Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan at Presentacion (ikinokonekt ang Siruma at Tinambac ng Tinambac-Partido road)

Yellow district = Ocampo, Tigaon, San Jose, Baao, Bula, Nabua at Balatan (ikinokonekt ng Fuentebella road at national road ang Ocampo-Tigaon-San Jose at Baao-Nabua, Bula ng Baao, at Balatan ng Nabua)

Blue district = Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City at Bato (ikinokonekt ng Tiwi road? ang Sagnay at Buhi, Buhi ng Iriga, Bato ng Iriga)


Ang party-list, fiksd dapat. Maralita/Leftist (hehehe) = hal. 5 seats, Ethnic/Katutubo = 4, Transport = 3, Youth = 3 seats, Education = 2 seats etc.

Willy B. Prilles, Jr. said...

I tried plotting your choices on the map using Paint. I think it makes more sense than my configuration, especially in terms of connectivity, contiguity and compactness.

I'll make two changes though:

(1) I'll let my original Cyan configuration stay: that is, take out Sangay from the Iriga-led district and put Nabua back. This maintains the Rinconada character of the district.

(2) I'll then lump Sangay, Tigaon, San Jose, Ocampo, Baao, Bula and Balatan in the Yellow district. This will make the district a Rinconada-Partido mix practically split down the middle, with Ocampo as the trump card.

There should be no problem in accessing Balatan; you can do it via Palsong, Bula (although you will pass through a junction in Nabua).

These two changes distribute population more equitably, which natural population growth should naturally cover. It will also potentially minimize political resistance, particularly from the Partido politicians.

The revised map is available here.

Filipinayzd said...

Hahaha!

Red distrikt - Andaya/Arroyo
Green distrikt - Roco (sori si Villafuerte)
Blue district - Mabolo
Orange distrikt - Velarde/Villafuerte (dito na lang sya, hehe)
Yellow distrikt - Gaite/Fuentebella
Cyan distrikt - Alfelor/Fortuno

Willy B. Prilles, Jr. said...

Re LRV: I don't think so. Roco only won in Naga and lost in the rest of the 2nd district in the last elections.

But the fight will certainly become more interesting.:)

Willy B. Prilles, Jr. said...

And Gaite lost to Boncayao in the last municipal election in Baao. He's a goner, in my opinion. But the Bernases may have a chance against whoever the Fuentebellas will put up.

The Fuentebellas, too, have the first-mover advantage in the Orange district.

But redistricting, should it happen, will level the playing field, especially in the two new ones.

Filipinayzd said...

http://www.comelec.gov.ph/stats/2004precrv_reg05.html

66,000 (Naga City)
versus
67,000 (BomCalCamCanMag)

Willy B. Prilles, Jr. said...

In the last elections in Naga, Roco won over LRV by only 5,000 votes.

That margin was easily overturned by his win in the nine other towns, including BomCalCamCanMag.:)

Anonymous said...

GAITE DID NOT LOST TO BONCAYAO...GAITE RUN FOR VICE-MAYOR AND BONCAYAO FOR MAYOR....

Anonymous said...

GAITE LOST I THINK BECAUSE HE WAS OVER CONFIDENT THAT HIS ACCOMPLISHMENT WILL MAKE BAAOENOS VOTE FOR HIM AS VICE-MAYOR...BUT...I GUESS BAAOENOS STILL THINKS OF HIM AS "OUTSIDER"...HEHEHE

magi said...

dai mo man i-isolate an balatan. nagsasaod yan sa nabua and iriga. an mga empleyado dyan taga nabua and iriga. let rinconada remain its true character.

Filipinayzd said...

Hello Willy. Results of the 2007 census is out!

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