12 May 2007

Team Naga poised for a repeat

APPARENTLY blunted by the storm of protest over the harassment case against incumbent Mayor Robredo, his Team Naga is poised for another repeat, judging from an independent survey released yesterday by the Ateneo Social Science Research Center.

The survey, conducted during the period April 25-May 1, 2007 -- well before news of his unseating gained local and national attention -- placed Robredo with a commanding lead of 68% over opponent Jojo Villafuerte's 17%, wife Leni's 3% and Salam Delfin's 0.8%.

In the event Robredo backs out or is disqualified, 80% of those who voted for Mayor Robredo said they will choose Leni, translating to a still formidable 57% edge that would insure Team Naga's victory.

The survey, covering 400 randomly selected households in the city, has a plus-or-minus 4.9% margin of error on a 95% confidence level.

The Sangguniang Panlungsod
The same pattern holds in the vice mayoralty contest, where reelectionist Vice Mayor Gabriel Bordado, Jr. (71%) comfortably led Atty. Juan Luis Carpio (16%). Thirteen percent of the respondents were either undecided, abstained or refused to answer.

In race for seats in the city council, the "Gabos kun Gabos, Ubos kun Ubos" battlecry remains potent as the Team Naga ticket is again projected to sweep all ten slots. Reelectionist John Bongat is the frontrunner, with 80% of the vote, followed by retired judge Esteban Abonal, Jr. (65%), Lourdes Asence (63%), Bernadette Roco (63%), William del Rosario (62%), Salvador del Castillo (53%), Ma. Elizabeth Lavadia (50%), Jose Tuason (49%), Nelson Legacion (48%) and Nathan Sergio (46%).

Ramon Perez, the best performing bet of the Villafuerte-led Kampi ticket, only had 25% of the vote, a 21-percentage point margin for Team Naga.

Congressional contest
What remains to be seen is whether the indignation rally will overturn the ASSRC survey result that favored incumbent Rep. Luis Villafuerte. The former (48%) held an 11-percentage point edge over his opponent, former Rep. Sulpicio Roco, Jr. (37%). Fifteen percent of the respondents were either undecided, abstained or refused to answer.

An internal City Hall survey, covering largely the same period but focusing on C and D respondents, however puts Roco up with a 5-percentage point edge, 49%-44%, over Villafuerte. For all the rest, it practically mirrors results of the ASSRC survey.

A copy of the ASSRC press statement is available here.


Maryanne Moll said...

What I still cannot understand is, why Leni? Just because she's the wife?

Willy B. Prilles, Jr. said...

Hi Maryanne.:) From your latest post, do I get it that you are back in Naga? An uncomplicated life free from deadlines is always a welcome respite.

Anyway, on your question, I will say why not Leni? As the unexpected trump card, I believe she had played her role very well - to insure that if the disqualification case did push through, all Robredo votes will be counted, not wasted. The Ateneo survey indicated this, via the 80% votes transfer rate.

So it is not just because she is the wife, but more so because she carries her husband's name.

But all is water under the bridge now; the last I heard, she backed out of the race yesterday, leaving her husband as sole candidadate after weathering the DQ challenge.

JOSEPH said...

Is there a chance that the Comelec will make a decision not to allow Mayor Jess Robredo, even less than 24 hours from the election?

Willy B. Prilles, Jr. said...

Joseph: I think they've run out of time.

The quo warranto case, which is what Brawner decided on, is different from the disqualification case, which still pends in their division.

The Comelec en banc has yet to rule on the former; the Special First Division also hasn't done the same in regard to the latter.

But in these most interesting of times, one can really never know -- especially given the administration's, and the Comelec's, proven capacity to plumb new depths of insanity. Just look at how coordinated the latter's moves are in the Cayetano case; what the left hand gives, the right hand takes away.

Maryanne Moll said...

That's what I was referring to, Willy. Is it just because she's the wife and carries her husband's name? Just for the votes to be counted? What of the more important things, the three years after the voting?

But I'm glad to hear she's backed out of the race. She's earned my respect back with that.

Willy B. Prilles, Jr. said...

To the 80% who are ready to transfer their Robredo vote to Leni under the worst-case scenario, there are only two choices: Robredo or Villafuerte. And Leni, I think, clearly guarantees the choice for 'continuity'.

As Leni said repeatedly, she is only an insurance. Kind of like a two-strand wire: even if Comelec shortcircuits one, the other is still alive. With the threat contained, there is no necessity for her continuing presence in the race.

Maryanne Moll said...

This is why I don't like politics. Things are never what they seem. Writing fiction is so much more agreeable. Heh!